With less than a month to go before Election Day here in the US, the presidential election has been weighing on everyone’s mind. At Permissionless III, the election and what it might portend for crypto priorities (including the top spot at the SEC and the outlook for House-approved market structure bill FIT21) were frequent topics of debate. a16z crypto’s Chris Dixon even told the audience that these policy issues are “by far the most important thing we have to solve” for the crypto industry to move forward in the US and keep up with development elsewhere. Much of the political conversation focused on the race at the top of the ballot, between presidential hopefuls Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Many believe that a Trump administration would be better for crypto. In addition to a skepticism of industry regulation more broadly, Trump has been loud about his support for the crypto industry on the campaign trail, promising to “[make] America the world capital for crypto and Bitcoin”. Trump has also announced support for a number of pro-crypto policies, including a pledge to fire current SEC Chair Gary Gensler and install a more crypto-friendly head of the agency, the creation of a national reserve of Bitcoin, the establishment of a crypto advisory council, and a ban on a US central bank digital currency. Trump’s embrace of crypto also appears to be more than just political: the former President launched a “Trump Digital Trading cards” NFT collection in 2022, and, together with other family members, has recently promoted World Liberty Financial, a crypto lending platform that seeks to support US dollar-based stablecoins and DeFi applications that preserve the US dollar’s status as global reserve currency. However, some observers have concerns about Trump’s apparent embrace of crypto, pointing to his opposition to cryptocurrencies during his first term, when he said their “value [was] highly volatile and based on thin air” in 2019, and unusually pro-insider tokenomics for World Liberty Financial, which had a bumpy public token sale this week.
On the other side of the aisle, Democratic presidential hopeful Kamala Harris has also signaled a shift to a more crypto-friendly approach than the current administration. While she has remained quiet on policy specifics, she has taken a more conciliatory tone, telling a group of donors in New York that her administration “will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets while protecting consumers and investors” and announcing her support for “a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency and other digital assets” at an event in Pennsylvania. These statements have inspired optimism for her administration and drawn support from some in the crypto industry, including Uniswap Labs CEO Hayden Adams.
While the presidential election is the highest profile concern, a frequent refrain at Permissionless was that we should pay just as much, if not more, attention to races down the ballot. For most in the industry, the preferred path to a clear regulatory framework is through legislation passed by Congress, like FIT21, the market structure bill which was approved by the House earlier this year. The future of that bill, and any other bill regulating the crypto industry, runs through the House and Senate. This has been reflected in the spending of crypto-friendly political action committees (PACs). Crypto advocates have spent about $40M on the Ohio Senate race, where pro-crypto entrepreneur Bernie Moreno is challenging current Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), the crypto-skeptical chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. The industry has also spent in support of crypto-friendly candidates in primary elections, leading to wins in about two dozen primaries, meaning pro-crypto candidates will occupy a greater share of the seats of Congress next year.
Whatever happens in the election, either at the top of the ticket or down ballot, crypto has already won. The crypto industry and participants have organized and mobilized through industry associations like the Blockchain Association and political organizations like the Coinbase-supported Stand with Crypto, raising funds to support those pro-crypto candidates, educating voters and candidates, and turning crypto into a key issue in this election cycle. Their influence has had an impact outside those directly connected to the industry as well; recent polls have found that one-third of likely US voters said they’ll consider a candidate’s views on crypto when they go to the polls, and 77% said that they believe presidential candidates should be informed about innovative technologies like AI and crypto. These efforts have already shown the lasting impact the crypto industry has made. That’s a good sign that, as Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) said onstage at Permissionless last week, there are “good things coming” for the US crypto industry, no matter what the outcome in November.
